NFL Model Simulates Week 9 Games
A betting algorithm projects a top-12 quarterback for the Dolphins and a low passing total for Baker Mayfield.
By Malik Salazar ·
SportsLine’s algorithm has processed the current NFL schedule by running 10,000 simulations for every matchup in Week 9. The model enters the week with a 60-51 record on top-rated picks since 2024. It highlights specific trends in rest advantages and player performance to guide betting decisions and fantasy lineups.
The data suggests that teams with less rest perform well under Sean Payton. Denver is 7-2 against the spread in such situations since 2024, with an 8-1 straight-up record. This trend applies to Sunday’s game against the Panthers. Conversely, New Orleans is 0-8 against the spread after a bye, a streak that could favor Cleveland in their matchup on the same day.
The model projects high scoring in Seattle, forecasting 52 combined points in the game against Arizona. It views the over of 44.5 points as a 67% hit rate. A five-team parlay constructed from these simulations pays nearly 30-1, with the Seahawks-Cardinals point total as a central component.
For fantasy football, the algorithm projects Malik Willis of the Dolphins as a top-12 quarterback this week. It also identifies Kyren Williams of the Rams and Chris Olave of the Saints as top daily fantasy sports picks. These selections are derived from the same simulation data used for betting spreads.
A Vegas expert named Larry Hartstein backs the Giants to cover against Philadelphia. Hartstein is 11-4 over his last 15 against-the-spread picks. He notes the Eagles are averaging 4.2 yards per play offensively and allowing 5.9 defensively. He calls this the worst combination in the league. Hartstein also mentions that Cam Skattebo may sit out with a hamstring issue, allowing Devin Singletary to fill in.
The model’s machine learning arm targets a prop bet on Baker Mayfield. It backs Mayfield to go under 18.5 pass completions at -102 odds. This prediction comes despite Mayfield’s team not completing a single pass in a recent win. The model rates this as a five-star pick for the Bears and Buccaneers game.
Another expert, R.J. White, supports the Bills to cover in Monday Night Football. White is 39-17-3 in his last 59 picks involving the Vikings. He points out that Buffalo has scored at least 24 points in every game this season. He argues the Vikings’ offense, which has only six touchdowns since Week 2, is not strong enough to stop the league’s best scoring unit.
The Bills rank first in scoring but 24th in points allowed. The Vikings rank first in scoring defense but 27th in points scored. White leans toward the under of 46.5 total points. He believes the Bills’ offense will overcome the Vikings’ defensive strength, citing that a good Lions offense reached 19 points in Minnesota.
