Lincoln Targets Gray in High-Stakes Valley Race

The 13th Congressional District race in California has narrowed to a contest between two seasoned political figures who agree on the primary concern of affordability but disagree on the solution. On Nov. 3, voters will choose between Democratic incumbent Adam Gray and Republican challenger Kevin Lincoln, the former mayor of Stockton. The district now includes downtown Stockton, a change that brings the race closer to Lincoln’s home turf.

The path to this matchup began with the redrawing of district lines under Proposition 50. Lincoln initially planned to challenge Rep. Josh Harder in the 9th District, where he ran in 2024. After the map changed, he shifted his focus to the 13th. This new district covers the agricultural heart of the San Joaquin Valley and extends south along Interstate 5 toward the Coalinga area, bypassing Fresno. The redistricting process moved the boundary to include areas where Lincoln has deep local roots.

Gray’s hold on the seat was once precarious. Two years ago, he won the election by a margin of 187 votes out of 210,921 ballots cast, defeating Republican Rep. John Duarte. That result stands as one of the narrowest victories in recent history for the district. The new map places Gray in a district that was previously more Republican, according to 2023 state records. Those records showed 42.3% of voters registered as Democrats and 28.5% as Republicans before the lines were adjusted.

Money remains a distinct advantage for the incumbent. Federal Election Commission figures from June 30 show Gray has raised $4.2 million in contributions and loans. Lincoln has collected $2.2 million for his campaign, leaving him with a $2 million deficit. The fundraising disparity underscores the financial gap the challenger must overcome in the final weeks of the campaign.

Lincoln carries the endorsement of President Donald Trump, who wrote in December on Truth Social that Lincoln has his "Complete and Total Endorsement." Lincoln has displayed this support prominently on his campaign website, calling the backing "honored and thankful." He also recorded a video for the National Republican Congressional Committee titled "MAGA Majority," in which he detailed his time as a Marine and his work as a pastor. His LinkedIn profile indicates he served in the Marine Corps' White House Military Office from 2001 to 2005, where he guarded Marine One.

The candidates have sharpened their arguments around economic policy. Lincoln argues that his priority is to "restore the American dream" by making home ownership more affordable. At a rally in September, he stated his goals include lowering the cost of gas, food, and utilities, creating jobs, and cutting taxes. He accused Gray of repeatedly voting to raise taxes during his time in the California Legislature. Lincoln specifically claimed that Gray "increased the gas tax over 113% a gallon," a point he uses to contrast his own platform of tax relief.

Gray, a Merced native and former state assemblymember, positions himself as a centrist. He serves as a whip for the Blue Dog Coalition, a group of moderate lawmakers. In an interview with the Sacramento Bee, Gray said voters in the Valley want an independent voice rather than a strictly Democratic or Republican one. He has criticized Trump’s deportation policies as "irresponsible, reckless, dangerous," yet he avoids heavy reliance on party labels. He points to his legislative record, including efforts to reverse Republican Medicaid cuts and limit presidential tariff powers without congressional approval.

The race enters its final phase with both candidates campaigning aggressively. Democrats are betting that high gas prices and aggressive immigration raids will hurt Lincoln, despite his high-profile endorsements. Lincoln, who described himself as someone who "knows how to grind, knows how to fight and how to win a tough election," continues to push his message of economic relief. Gray emphasizes his record of fiscal discipline and his ability to work across party lines. The next major step is the Nov. 3 ballot, where the district’s voters will decide the winner.

The district’s composition remains a key variable. The area skirting Fresno and running through the agricultural belt presents a mix of urban and rural voters. Lincoln’s presence in Stockton gives him a local advantage in the city’s downtown area. Gray’s base remains strong in the broader Valley region. The outcome will depend on which candidate can mobilize the most votes in this newly defined geographic area.