Lebanese Shi'ites Prefer State Control of Hezbollah Weapons

A September survey indicates a fundamental shift in the political alignment of Lebanon's Shi'ite community, which has long served as the primary base for Hezbollah. The data suggests that the majority now prefers the national government to assume command of the group's military assets, a stance that directly contradicts the militia's historical assertion that its arms are essential for national defense against Israel.

Statistics Lebanon conducted the poll in September, surveying 800 Lebanese Shi'ites. The results showed that 66.4% supported transferring Hezbollah's weapons to the Lebanese state, while 29.6% preferred the group retain control. This finding marks a notable departure from earlier assessments, such as a May 2026 survey by Lebanon's Information International, where 87.5% of Shi'ite respondents opposed disarming the group and only 7.9% supported handing over its weapons.

The poll also revealed high confidence in the Lebanese Armed Forces. Approximately 78.5% of respondents expressed trust in the army, and 51.1% identified it as the institution best suited to ensure long-term security. By comparison, only 16.5% selected Hezbollah for that role. Additionally, 71.1% said decisions regarding war and peace should rest exclusively with the state, while just 5.9% believed Hezbollah's leadership should play a larger role in shaping the country's future.

Sentiment toward the militia remained mixed. While 59.5% of respondents retained some level of trust in Hezbollah, including 37.1% who reported a great deal of trust, a majority of 67.4% felt the group had failed to meet its goals in the war with Israel or had achieved only partial success. Furthermore, 42.1% voiced disappointment, anger, or concern regarding the group's leadership and the consequences of the conflict.

Researchers Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni, writing for Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, argued that Hezbollah's influence persists due to its social and economic networks and the historical marginalization of Shi'ites. They noted that intimidation has often discouraged dissent. They contended that weakening the group would require a stronger Lebanese army and financial support from Western and Gulf nations to allow the state to replace the services the militia provides.

Local reactions also reflect growing caution. In Tyre, property owners reportedly opposed opening a branch of the Hezbollah-linked financial institution Al-Qard Al-Hassan in their building, fearing it might become a target in an Israeli strike. In response to the destruction caused by a new war that began in March 2026, Hezbollah announced aid of up to $14,000 for eligible families in Beirut and its southern suburbs whose primary homes were destroyed, and up to $12,000 elsewhere.

The findings arrive after Hezbollah suffered significant losses, including the killing of leader Hassan Nasrallah in September 2024 and heavy destruction in southern villages during the 2026 conflict. The poll results suggest that while the group maintains a base of trust, the community is increasingly looking to the state for security and political direction.