Iran analysts forecast new U.S. and Israel strikes after Nov. 3 vote
Experts predict a third phase of conflict targeting energy and cyber infrastructure, following the midterm elections.
By Harper Laurent ·
U.S. and Israeli leaders are expected to resume military operations against Iran after the November 3 midterm elections, according to regional security experts. This third phase of conflict would follow two previous rounds of fighting that occurred over the past 18 months. Analysts warn that the new campaign could be more destructive than its predecessors.
Danny Citrinowicz of the Institute for National Security Studies stated that a renewed war seems almost inevitable. He noted that U.S. President Donald Trump has only bad and worse options in the Persian Gulf. Citrinowicz, a former Israeli intelligence official, previously argued that striking the Islamic regime would expand the conflict rather than change the government.
The conflict began in June 2025 with attacks on Iranian nuclear sites. That campaign lasted 12 days before a fragile ceasefire took hold. Fighting resumed in February following a large U.S. military buildup. Israeli forces then targeted senior Iranian leadership, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Citrinowicz expects the next round to focus on Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and undersea internet cables in the Strait of Hormuz. He also identified a risk that Iran might deploy ground forces to attack U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. The goal of such an offensive would be to maximize damage to the American economy.
Both sides have largely avoided direct strikes on each other's territory since the summer truce collapsed. However, the U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports, and Iran continues to target commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. These actions have raised global energy costs. On Thursday, President Trump accused Iran of inflating oil prices before the elections by creating fake hits and mines.
Iranian officials seek relief from sanctions, reparations for strike damage, and the release of frozen assets. They also want to retain their enriched uranium. Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have attempted to restart talks for weeks without success. Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution warned that the war has pushed Iranian leaders to strengthen their revolutionary ideology. She predicted that proxies in Yemen and Lebanon would retaliate by targeting economic sites like airports.
The human cost of the conflict is high. Western NGOs report more than 7,000 deaths in Iran, while Lebanese media cite over 4,000 deaths in Lebanon. Twenty-one U.S. service members and more than 70 Israelis have also been killed. Deaths were recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen. The Pentagon is reportedly drafting a new battle plan, though it remains unclear if Trump will approve it. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he wants to finish the job and remove the Iranian regime. He faces a close election in the coming days, which Citrinowicz believes could be aided by a widening crisis.
Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argued that diplomacy is not dead but has been narrowed by Trump's maximalist aims. He stated that Iran would only compromise under existential economic pressure paired with a limited diplomatic exit. Sadjadpour emphasized that asking Iran to change its identity would not succeed.
