JPMorgan doubles SpaceX target to $500 after $14.6B quarter

JPMorgan more than doubled its price target for SpaceX to $500 on Tuesday, a move that led a widespread wave of bullish revisions from Wall Street. The update followed the company's release of third quarter financial results on October 20, which showed revenue of $14.6 billion. This figure represented a 161 percent year-over-year increase and significantly exceeded the consensus estimate of roughly $12.7 billion.

The shift in analyst sentiment came after a period of steady growth for the firm. The Super Intelligence division emerged as the largest revenue contributor, generating approximately $7.6 billion, a nearly 830 percent jump from the previous year. The Connectivity segment, powered by Starlink, added $5.2 billion in revenue. Subscriber numbers climbed to 13.6 million, indicating continued strength in the consumer base.

Management provided guidance that further excited investors. CEO Elon Musk and CFO Bret Johnsen outlined a revenue forecast for the first quarter of 2027 between $33 billion and $37 billion. This projection far surpassed the approximately $22 billion that analysts had previously modeled. The company also planned for capital expenditures of $35 billion to $40 billion in the fourth quarter, primarily focused on expanding AI compute infrastructure in locations such as Memphis and Southaven.

The earnings call highlighted the company's aggressive expansion in artificial intelligence. Musk noted that hyperscalers and other customers are in relentless demand for compute power. He stated that current pricing supports payback periods of less than a year, potentially as short as six months. Management aims to reach 2.5 to 3 gigawatts of nameplate compute capacity by the end of the year, with pathways to 13 gigawatts or more by the end of 2027.

Other sectors of the business also showed momentum. Starship recently achieved orbital success and deployed V3 satellites, while the company discussed spectrum expansion plans. The rapid adoption of the Grok Bot and enterprise interest in Starlink were also cited as positive developments. Additionally, special committees were formed to explore a possible combination with Tesla.

Several major financial firms adjusted their valuations in response to these results. Cantor Fitzgerald raised its target to $345, while Barclays and Morgan Stanley both set targets at $300. Citi increased its target to $240, UBS to $230, and TD Cowen to $224. Other institutions, including Wells Fargo and Clear Street, also moved their estimates higher.

SpaceX shares, which closed at $147.79 on October 20, jumped roughly 8 percent in early premarket trading on October 21. The movement reflects growing conviction in the company's trajectory across launch, connectivity, and its AI business. While the aggressive spending plans remain a focus for investors, the strong earnings and elevated targets suggest a robust outlook for the coming year.