Israel Election: 61-Seat Majority Out of Reach for Both Camps

Israeli politics has historically fractured along ideological lines, but the 2026 election has left the two main camps deadlocked. Initial tallies show Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party emerging as the largest single faction. However, his right-wing and religious alliance falls short of the 61 seats required to command the 120-member Knesset. Rival candidate Gadi Eisenkot, a former army chief, faces a similar hurdle. His center-left and centrist groups cannot reach a majority without the support of Arab-led parties.

The path to this impasse began with high voter engagement. Turnout exceeded 77 percent, driven by a electorate seeking to break what many viewed as Israel’s most right-leaning government. For four years, Netanyahu’s coalition pursued a hardline religious and nationalist agenda. This period included mass protests over a judicial overhaul and the wars triggered by the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks. Despite these events, voting patterns remained largely stable. Professor Tamar Hermann of the Israeli Democracy Institute noted that the relative strength of pro-Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu blocs had not shifted as drastically as many predicted.

The decisive factor now rests with Arab Israeli parties, who represent one-fifth of the population. These groups appeared to gain seats or hold their previous records. On the campaign trail, most Jewish opposition leaders pledged not to form a government with Arab-majority lists. Yet, with no other path to 61 seats, the taboo is being tested. Mansour Abbas, head of the Ra’am party, said he intends to join the next government. He argued that political alliances often shift after elections end. 'These are familiar and well-known party-political considerations,' Abbas stated. 'All politicians in Israel say one thing before elections and speak a different language after elections.'

Both leaders addressed their bases overnight. Netanyahu declared a 'decisive majority' among the Jewish public, though he stopped short of a formal victory claim. Eisenkot argued that the public chose change and voted against Netanyahu’s continuation. 'The coalition of failure has lost the people’s trust,' Eisenkot told his Yashar party. He pledged to form a stable Zionist government quickly.

The next phase of the process is already underway. Israeli President Isaac Herzog will present final results next week. He will then consult with elected party leaders to identify the candidate best positioned to build a coalition. That candidate has six weeks to secure a majority. If no agreement is reached, the task may pass to another leader or trigger a new election. In the interim, Netanyahu’s current cabinet remains in a caretaker role, barred from major policy changes. Veteran journalist Yaakov Katz warned that the process involves intense wrangling for cabinet positions and budgets, which could take weeks or months to resolve.