Opposition Bloc Divided Over 58-Seat Plan

Tensions are rising within Israel’s opposition bloc as it prepares for the upcoming elections, with a fundamental disagreement emerging over how to form the next government. Gadi Eisenkot, who aims to lead the anti-Netanyahu camp and serve as prime minister, has proposed a specific pathway to power. He suggests that if the Zionist parties seeking change win 58 or 59 seats, they should form a minority government rather than waiting for a full majority. This strategy relies on winning a confidence vote without permanent support from 61 members of the Knesset, allowing the new administration to take office and then expand its parliamentary base over time.

The legal basis for this plan rests on the distinction between forming a government and removing one. Swearing in a new cabinet requires a majority in the confidence vote, meaning abstentions can permit a minority to take power. This differs from a constructive vote of no confidence, which requires 61 votes to displace a sitting prime minister. Consequently, Eisenkot’s approach would allow the opposition to take control if they win the election, but it would not enable them to remove Benjamin Netanyahu by simple majority if he retains his position.

However, two key figures in the opposition reject this strategy. Avigdor Liberman and Naftali Bennett, who heads the Beyachad list with Yair Lapid, insist on a Zionist majority of 61 seats from the start. Liberman categorically opposes a minority government, even if it is transitional. He argues that another election is preferable to a government that does not meet his conditions and has stated that a unity arrangement with Netanyahu is unacceptable. Bennett and Lapid share this view, refusing to rely on the votes or abstentions of Arab parties to secure power.

Despite these differences, the parties are making progress on other fronts. They are reportedly nearing an agreement to replace Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana before any coalition deal is finalized. The bloc views this as a critical step to control the parliamentary agenda, even if Netanyahu remains as head of a caretaker government. The speaker is elected early in a new Knesset term through a public vote, and the opposition could use support from Arab party members to elect an agreed candidate. Names under consideration include Chili Tropper, Matan Kahana, and Elazar Stern from Eisenkot’s list, as well as Meirav Ben-Ari and Eitan Ginzburg from the Bennett-Lapid list.

Other candidates for the speaker role include Efrat Rayten of the Democrats and attorney Oded Forer of Yisrael Beytenu. No consensus candidate has been announced yet. Liberman estimated this week that up to one-third of outgoing coalition members might vote against Ohana, though they would need to do so in a public session. This maneuver is part of a broader effort to advance specific legislative goals, including a state commission of inquiry into October 7, changes to conscription laws, limits on the prime minister’s tenure, and the repeal of certain judicial changes made by the outgoing government.

Liberman also seeks a bar on individuals facing criminal charges serving as prime minister. While party teams have begun coordinating on these issues, no binding agreement exists on the details or the order of operations. Obstacles remain, as not every bloc member supports every judicial change, and a new speaker does not automatically guarantee a legislative majority. The memory of the previous Bennett-Lapid government, which collapsed before completing its promised laws, continues to influence the discussions.

The election outcome itself remains uncertain. Most polls show the anti-Netanyahu camp ahead of the outgoing coalition, but the Zionist parties fall short of the 61-seat majority under current agreements. Netanyahu’s bloc is also far from a majority in many surveys, though some polls give the right-wing alliance enough seats. The electoral threshold could shift seat distribution, meaning a small number of votes could determine whether Israel forms a new government or faces another round of political turmoil. Eisenkot has not ruled out outside support from the Ra’am party, but no agreed formula exists for implementing this plan.

Leadership rivalry also persists within the bloc. Eisenkot hopes to head the largest party, while Bennett views himself as a natural candidate due to his experience as prime minister. A meeting between Eisenkot and Liberman earlier this week ended with a joint call to raise voter turnout but did not resolve their disagreement over the cabinet’s size. The opposition faces a complex path forward, balancing the desire for immediate change with the internal demands for a stable, Zionist-led majority.