National drops to 29 percent in new vote forecast
Labour holds at 27 percent while coalition partners gain ground, leaving the math for forming a government tight.
By Sarah Montgomery ·
National Party support has fallen sharply, dropping three points to reach 29 percent in the latest 1News-Verian poll. Labour remains steady at 27 percent, creating the closest race between the two major parties in recent weeks.
The shift alters the balance of power in the House of Representatives. National’s coalition partners, Act and New Zealand First, have both increased their support. Act rose one point to 12 percent, while New Zealand First jumped two points to 10 percent.
Based on these figures, the right bloc would command 61 seats in total. National would secure 34 seats, Act would take 15, and New Zealand First would hold 12. This total stands just five seats ahead of the left bloc.
The left side of the political spectrum includes Labour, the Green Party, and Te Pāti Māori. Labour holds 27 percent support, while the Greens have declined one point to 15 percent. Te Pāti Māori sits at 0.1 percent, its lowest result in the polling series.
The final outcome depends on the number of electorates won by smaller parties. If Te Pāti Māori secures four seats and the Te Tai Tokerau Party wins one, an overhang would expand Parliament. In that scenario, the left bloc would hold 56 seats, with Opportunity holding eight seats to determine the government.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has seen his personal approval ratings rise. He now commands 24 percent support as preferred prime minister, up four points from the previous week. Chris Hipkins of Labour remains at 18 percent.
The survey polled 1,003 eligible voters between October 15 and October 19, 2026. The maximum sampling error is approximately 3.1 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level.
