AP calls 2026 races when trailing candidate has no path to victory
NPR relies on the Associated Press to declare winners in 435 House, 35 Senate, and 36 gubernatorial contests based on vote counts and remaining ballots.
By Malik Salazar ·
The Associated Press has called election races since 1848. It relies on a process that analyzes vote counts by county and ballot type rather than waiting for every ballot to be tallied. This method allows the organization to declare winners in 435 House races, 35 Senate races, and 36 gubernatorial contests before counting is complete.
NPR partners with the AP to make these determinations. The AP's decision editors sign off on calls for president, U.S. Senate, and governor, as well as significant House races. They collaborate with analysts who focus on statewide contests. The team reviews incoming votes county by county and separates ballots cast in person at polling places from those sent by mail or cast in advance.
The AP maintains constant contact with its vote count team to track outstanding ballots. Analysts calculate the likelihood of a specific outcome based on where remaining votes originate and the demographic makeup of those communities. They also consider how individuals in those areas typically vote. This data helps determine if a candidate can maintain their lead once all votes are counted.
Races can be called before 100% of the vote is counted. The AP states that it declares a winner as soon as a clear outcome is determined. The organization does not make projections or name apparent winners. It waits until the trailing candidates no longer have a mathematical path to victory. This approach ensures that race calls are declarations based on analysis rather than speculation.
NPR uses AP data to populate its election results pages and alert broadcast and digital audiences. Member stations also receive this information. NPR does not call a race based on a candidate's victory declaration or concession speech. It waits for the AP's official call to ensure accuracy.
The AP does not call races if the margin is too close to determine a winner. In the 2000 presidential election, the organization did not call the Florida race between George W. Bush and Al Gore because the margin was insufficient for a definitive conclusion. The AP backs its calls with transparent reporting on the research and analysis used to reach a conclusion.
Counting voters can take a long time after election night. Race calls will help determine the balance of power in the Senate and House of Representatives. The AP and NPR will provide ongoing coverage as results are finalized. The process continues until the outcome of each contest is certain.
