Cabinet Calculus: Trump Seeks to Block Two Ministers

President Donald Trump wants the next Israeli government to leave Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich out of the cabinet. American sources told the Israeli outlet Walla on Wednesday that the President believes settler violence is undermining his regional vision. They said he thinks the current trajectory makes it harder to carry out his plans.

The reported position emerges as preliminary data reveals a political deadlock in Israel. The Central Elections Committee announced on Wednesday morning that more than four million votes had been counted. The data showed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc is expected to enter the Knesset with 54 seats. Neither side has reached the 61 seats needed for a majority.

Netanyahu’s Likud party is projected to win 27 seats. United Torah Judaism, Shas, and Otzma Yehudit are each expected to take seven seats. The Religious Zionist Party is expected to win six. The opposition bloc, made up of Yashar, B'Yachad, Yisrael Beytenu, and the Democrats, is expected to win 49 seats.

Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit and the alliance of Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party and Zehut are projected to win about 13 seats combined. That number makes them potentially important partners in any future coalition led by Netanyahu. Exit polls also suggested that Arab parties could play a significant role in determining whether a coalition is possible.

Two parties fell short of the electoral threshold in the exit polls. The Reservists' Party and People of Israel failed to cross the line. Celebrations broke out at Likud headquarters after the results were published. Ofer Winter, chairman of Amcha Yisrael, which also missed the threshold in exit polls, criticized Netanyahu. Sources close to Winter claimed the prime minister had 'drained our votes' and called it a 'strategic mistake.'

Trump’s associates have been briefed on the election results, but the President has not yet commented on them himself. On Wednesday, he spoke about the war with Iran, saying it could end whenever he decides. 'It will end very quickly, but we have to make sure it ends the right way,' he said. Trump said ending the war requires 'an absolute and unequivocal declaration that they will never have nuclear weapons.' He described Iran as 'the number one state sponsor of terrorism in the world.'

The final distribution of seats will depend on the official count. The question of who can form a government remains open. The preliminary projections show that 13 seats could decide if Netanyahu keeps the premiership.