Palestinian blocs hold key to breaking Israeli election deadlock
Polls indicate neither major coalition can secure a majority without 12 to 15 seats held by Arab parties, forcing unexpected coalition math.
By Sarah Montgomery ·
Voters in Kfar Qasim gathered recently for campaign events, a scene that may foreshadow a decisive outcome in next week's election. The turnout of Palestinian citizens, who comprise roughly 20 percent of the population, is projected to determine the next government.
Current forecasts suggest Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right alliance will lose its majority in the 120-seat Knesset. The Jewish opposition bloc is also expected to miss the 61-seat threshold required to form a government. This leaves between 12 and 15 seats held by Palestinian parties, split between Ra'am and the Joint List, as the deciding factor.
Ahmad Tibi, leader of Ta'al, stated that high turnout is a key tool to remove the current administration. He noted that his party is determined to contribute to the government's collapse. This strategy contrasts with the long-standing resistance from many opposition leaders to include Arab politicians in a governing coalition.
Netanyahu and his allies have campaigned against such an alliance, using slogans like "Bibi or Tibi." Historical precedent for Palestinian ministers is limited. Raleb Majadele served as sports minister for two years, and Issawi Frej held the regional coordination post for just over a year. Tibi himself is unlikely to secure a cabinet position despite his long tenure in the Knesset.
Political analysts note that past resistance to coalitions with Arab parties has been reversed. In 2021, Mansour Abbas led Ra'am into a coalition with Naftali Bennett. Netanyahu also initiated talks with Abbas previously. A voter in the tech sector, Mohammed, argued that arithmetic will eventually force a decision regardless of initial rhetoric.
Negotiations would face internal hurdles for Palestinian parties. Most opposition groups oppose a two-state solution and support the settlement movement in the West Bank. Tibi described the choice as selecting between two difficult options, contrasting Netanyahu, Bezalel Smotrich, and Itamar Ben-Gvir with the opposition camp.
Fear of a renewed far-right mandate is driving voter participation. Sami Abu Shehadeh, leader of the Balad party, cited the situation in Gaza, West Bank violence, and rising discrimination as primary motivators. He warned that voters fear the return of leaders they view as dangerous. This anxiety exists despite historical distrust of the electoral system.
Recent judicial decisions have fueled skepticism among some Palestinian voters. The supreme court removed Abu Shehadeh from the race over an article regarding October 7, a move criticized for inconsistent standards. Conversely, a motion to disqualify Ben-Gvir over his rhetoric was rejected. Some, like journalist Nagham Zbeedat, abstain on principle, refusing to legitimize a system they view as unequal.
Amjed Iraqi of the International Crisis Group stated that a returning far-right government would have a mandate to accelerate annexation and ethnic cleansing policies. He characterized the vote as a measure of mitigation rather than a clear path to reform. The election occurs two days before Kfar Qasim commemorates the 1956 massacre, in which border police killed 49 residents who were unaware of a curfew.
The final vote count will reveal whether the opposition can overcome its internal divisions to secure a governing majority. The outcome depends on whether the 12 to 15 seats held by Palestinian parties align with the opposition or the far-right bloc. No other major shifts in polling are reported ahead of the deadline.
