Tight Senate Races and Ranked Choice Voting Could Delay Final Counts for Weeks
House control may be clear Tuesday night, but seven competitive states and complex ballot rules could keep the Senate race in the balance through the following days.
By Sarah Montgomery ·
The outcome of the House race is likely to be known quickly, but the Senate contest faces a prolonged uncertainty that could last for days or weeks. Seven states are considered highly competitive, and the narrow margins in those districts make an early declaration difficult. Additionally, two states employ ranked choice voting, a system that often extends the counting process well past the initial reporting of standard ballots.
Georgia leads the early evening watch as polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern Time. In the Senate race, Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is projected to defeat Republican Representative Mike Collins. The gubernatorial contest is far tighter, pitting billionaire businessman Rick Jackson against former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger noted that new laws now require counties to report their results within one hour of polls closing, a shift from previous practices that allowed for longer delays.
South Carolina presents a surprising challenge for the Republican Party in a heavily GOP state. Senator Darline Graham, who was appointed to the seat after her brother Lindsey Graham died, faces Democratic nominee Annie Andrews. National polls label the race a toss-up, while the Cook Political Report indicates a slight advantage for the Republicans. The outcome here will be a key indicator of national voter sentiment in traditionally safe territory.
At 8 p.m. Eastern Time, more than half of the country has finished voting. Florida and Pennsylvania offer critical tests for both parties. In Florida, Republican Representative Byron Donalds holds a slight poll advantage over Democratic opponent David Jolly for governor. The state recently redrew its congressional maps, and the Cook Political Report identifies seven competitive House seats, two of which are toss-ups. In Pennsylvania, Democrats have gained ground in three previously toss-up House races, potentially securing a significant legislative victory in the Keystone State.
The 9 p.m. Eastern Time window marks a major shift as polls close in over 80% of states. Attention turns to Texas, Iowa, Kansas, and Michigan for decisive Senate and gubernatorial results. In Texas, Democratic Representative James Talarico challenges Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton for governor. A Democrat has not won a statewide office in the state since the early 1990s. In Iowa, Democratic State Representative Josh Turek battles Republican Representative Ashley Hinson in a close open Senate seat, while Democrats also contest three of the state’s four Republican-held congressional districts.
Michigan remains a focal point for the national media. Progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed faces former Republican Representative Mike Rogers for governor. The race has featured intense advertising, including Islamophobic attacks against El-Sayed, who has responded by emphasizing his personal narrative. The outcome will determine if the progressive wing can secure a major win in a key swing state. In Minnesota, Republican candidate Michelle Tafoya is not expected to win but may keep the race close enough to cause discomfort for Democratic Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan.
Mountain West states report their results between 10 p.m. and 11 p.m. Eastern Time. Montana, a reliably Republican state, hosts a competitive House race in the 1st Congressional District between Democratic nominee Sam Forstag and Republican Aaron Flint. Nevada’s gubernatorial race between incumbent Joe Lombardo and Aaron Ford is considered a toss-up amid local economic pressures. California completes the cycle at 11 p.m. Eastern Time, with a new congressional map that voters approved in 2025 to counter Republican redistricting efforts.
